Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:42:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
87 0x8791…dfb0 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$200 (-9%) realized +$128 · open −$328
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +92% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +74% what you keep after slip
Net edge+74%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$578per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$986now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$176
sports 7% +$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+74.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +105.1% +85.6% 100% 100% +85.6%
≤30d 3 +92.3% +74.0% 100% 100% +71.8%
≤90d 3 +92.3% +74.0% 100% 100% +71.8%
all 3 +92.3% +74.0% 100% 100% +71.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +74.0% 100% +71.8%
10% +57.4% 100% +55.3%
15% +42.2% 100% +40.3%
20% +28.2% 67% +26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +90% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +92% · $-wt +90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$221 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$986
Realized+$128
Unrealized−$328
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage16d
Avg bet$578
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1,315 $986 −$328 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $152 +$160 +105%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $294 +$382 +130%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $294 +$122 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $310 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $152 5h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $152 5h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,085 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $294 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 43¢ $97 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 43¢ $197 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 16d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $168 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $986.23 · official $986.23 (match) · 31 history records