Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:23:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8790…e9c6 world 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate47%23W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$6
other 19% −$2
politics 14% +$1
sports 8% +$3
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 15 -2.1% -11.4% 7% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 15 -2.1% -11.4% 7% 0% -10.6%
all 49 -4.3% -13.4% 47% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 2% -9.9%
10% -21.7% 2% -18.5%
15% -29.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -36.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses23 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage488d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 82¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $9 −$1 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $11 $0 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $37 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $40 −$3 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $9 −$1 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $73 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $47 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $10 $0 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $2 $0 +5%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Offi Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 07 $11 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -47%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in May? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president Apr 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Newfoundland and Lab Apr 23 $14 $0 +1%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by Friday? Apr 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 21 $12 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? Apr 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Apr 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 05 $1 $0 -31%
Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 30-40% on the EU by June 30? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Mar 31 $2 $0 +4%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 28 $2 −$1 -56%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Mar 27 $3 $0 +2%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 26 $14 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Mar 20 $15 +$1 +7%
North Alabama vs. Central Arkansas Mar 03 $12 +$3 +25%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Feb 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 23 $12 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $33 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $39 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $4 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $4 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $9 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $36 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $4 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $32 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $5 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $5 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $11 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $36 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $37 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $41 13d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $41 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $37 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $26 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $14 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 11¢ $8 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 12¢ $9 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $17 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $25 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $45 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $29 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $12 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.36 · official $5.36 (match) · 142 history records