Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:38:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
87 0x878d…adc4 sports 7 markets active 5d ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$311 (+93%) realized +$321 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +89% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +64% what you keep after slip
Net edge+64%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate100%6W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$313
politics 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+71.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +89.0% +71.0% 100% 67% +77.6%
≤30d 6 +89.0% +71.0% 100% 67% +77.6%
≤90d 6 +89.0% +71.0% 100% 67% +77.6%
all 6 +89.0% +71.0% 100% 67% +77.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +71.0% 67% +77.6%
10% +54.6% 67% +60.6%
15% +39.7% 50% +45.1%
20% +26.0% 50% +30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +96% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +89% · $-wt +96% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$321
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses6 / 0
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage3d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $109 +$206 +188%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $48 +$11 +24%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $25 +$23 +90%
England vs. Costa Rica: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $31 +$69 +226%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $57 +$1 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 09 $55 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.34 · official $0.34 (match) · 16 history records