Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:33:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x878c…9ac3 other 231 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$66 (-0%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 216L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$21
14 days−$30
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$34
sports 21% −$13
politics 9% −$8
culture 8% −$8
crypto 6% −$6
economics 5% −$3
world 4% −$4
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 168 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 231 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 216
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)231 / 231
History coverage132d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 231 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $336 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $190 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 21 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $367 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $53 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $103 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $253 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $533 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $483 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $202 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $375 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 17 $151 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $680 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $262 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $252 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $199 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $228 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $405 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $419 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $541 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $421 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $209 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $236 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $65 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $387 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $353 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $296 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $190 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $120 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $213 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $217 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $220 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $52 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 3h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 5h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 6h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 8h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 9h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $52 14h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $52 15h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 17h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 18h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 20h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $52 21h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $52 26h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $53 27h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $53 35h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $53 37h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $53 38h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $53 40h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 44h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 46h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1356 history records