Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:00:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

87
0x878a…a429
other · 183 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5,341 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,332 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$493
Realized−$5,332
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses64 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions14
Markets (closed)169 / 183
History coverage56d
Avg bet$551
Trades / day61.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%
Chart Positions 14 History 169 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$361
7 days+$167
14 days−$505
30 days−$5,308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 79¢ 78¢ $79 $78 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Bo Nickal 74¢ 74¢ $74 $74 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 57¢ 57¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $54 $53 −$2 (-3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 51¢ 50¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Yes 47¢ 37¢ $47 $37 −$10 (-21%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $24 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+8%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+9%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Michael Chandler 17¢ 18¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+3%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+7%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-4%)
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Card) Daniel Santos 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Over 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card) Melquizael Costa 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card) Santiago Luna 48¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight, Main Card) Tai Tuivasa 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) Tatsuro Taira 33¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1,044 −$133 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $48 +$194 +406%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $31 −$19 -61%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2,782 +$42 +2%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $964 −$491 -51%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $28 −$16 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $23 +$3 +13%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $33 −$23 -70%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $35 +$29 +83%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $70 +$30 +44%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $41 +$59 +146%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $37 −$28 -75%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 11 $14 −$14 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $294 −$105 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1,095 +$413 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $661 +$87 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $650 −$111 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $6 −$1 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $17 +$7 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $605 −$36 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $432 +$182 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $14 −$12 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -52%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $191 +$102 +54%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $103 −$102 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $79 +$21 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $40 +$10 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $79 +$21 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $24 +$26 +105%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $62 +$38 +62%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 06 $38 +$12 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $39 −$26 -67%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $37 −$36 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 06 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $81 +$17 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $264 −$161 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1,139 +$22 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $108 +$20 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $461 −$460 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $57 −$54 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $64 −$47 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $54 −$52 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $67 −$65 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $29 −$28 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 97% −$5,393
sports 3% +$67
tech 0% −$16
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 3m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 3m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 5m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 5m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 19m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 21m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $14 34m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 34m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $17 35m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 35m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $66 39m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $68 45m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 45m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $57 46m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $57 46m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $36 52m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $60 52m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $66 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $70 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $77 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $76 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $13 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +52.3% +37.8% 50% 47% -3.7%
≤30d 75 -8.9% -17.6% 35% 29% -23.0%
≤90d 169 -5.4% -14.4% 38% 30% -14.0%
all 169 -5.4% -14.4% 38% 30% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover61.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 30% -14.0%
10% -22.6% 22% -22.2%
15% ← realistic here -30.1% 17% -29.7%
20% -36.9% 12% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $492.75 · official $492.75 (match) · 3500 history records