Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:41:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

87
0x8789…3f84
crypto · 122 markets active 2h ago
3.0score
+$124 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$42 · open +$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$44
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses55 / 65
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)120 / 122
History coverage30d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 2 History 120 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days+$207
14 days+$247
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 32¢ 62¢ $15 $29 +$14 (+95%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner HANJIN BRION 27¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs BNK FEARX 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Thunder 41¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Team Vitality 60¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Timberwolves 34¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 35¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Spurs 32¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Cavaliers 36¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Hanwha Life Esports 40¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $41 +$70 +172%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$20 +99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$19 +37%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $41 +$67 +165%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $60 +$50 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $60 −$59 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $69 +$81 +118%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $50 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 06 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $38 +$75 +197%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $81 +$124 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 31 $25 −$22 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 31 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 31 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 31 $42 −$40 -96%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 31 $66 −$65 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $51 +$64 +126%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $38 −$38 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $63 −$62 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 27 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 27 $51 −$30 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 27 $26 −$24 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 27 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 27 $26 +$24 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 27 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 27 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 27 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 27 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 27 $5 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 27 $5 +$15 +286%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 27 $5 +$26 +484%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $57 −$51 -88%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $58 +$47 +82%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $29 −$28 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $65 −$64 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 20 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 20 $26 $0 +2%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $47 −$46 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 19 $52 +$93 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 67% −$249
sports 29% +$289
other 4% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $111 6h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 32¢ $15 12h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 99¢ $40 12h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $41 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 30h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 49¢ $20 30h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 22¢ $5 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 30h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $41 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 45h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 35¢ $25 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $30 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $108 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $60 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $60 5d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 100¢ $150 6d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 100¢ $2 6d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 45¢ $69 6d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 99¢ $69 6d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 70¢ $50 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $113 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $38 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $205 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 46¢ $21 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +16.0% +4.9% 57% 57% +26.6%
≤30d 120 +3.8% -6.1% 46% 44% -8.6%
≤90d 120 +3.8% -6.1% 46% 44% -8.6%
all 120 +3.8% -6.1% 46% 44% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 44% -8.6%
10% -15.1% 41% -17.3%
15% -23.3% 38% -25.3%
20% -30.8% 33% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.02 · official $44.02 (match) · 229 history records