Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:41:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
87 0x8788…d6b5 crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$307 (+21%) realized +$307 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate60%18W / 12L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day41.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$266
other 34% −$63
sports 2% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+41.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +56.7% +41.8% 60% 57% -3.7%
≤30d 30 +56.7% +41.8% 60% 57% -3.7%
≤90d 30 +56.7% +41.8% 60% 57% -3.7%
all 30 +56.7% +41.8% 60% 57% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +41.8% 57% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here +28.2% 53% -13.0%
15% +15.8% 40% -21.4%
20% +4.5% 33% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +141% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$30 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized+$307
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses18 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage2d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day41.3
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $250 $250 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $114 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$46 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $127 +$33 +26%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$54 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 −$73 -72%
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? AND Will Netherlands win on 202 Jun 20 $8 +$6 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$78 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $128 +$39 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$16 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$242 +4529%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2 −$1 -53%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$3 +52%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $2 −$1 -44%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2 +$2 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $149 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 52¢ $28 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 19¢ $28 17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 45¢ $16 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.25 · official $250.25 (match) · 74 history records