Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:01:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
87 0x8788…4e20 sports 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$625 (-4%) realized −$626 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%63W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$201
7 days+$471
14 days+$660
30 days−$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$801
other 3% +$192
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +102.5% +83.2% 83% 83% +71.2%
≤30d 27 -2.4% -11.7% 48% 44% -17.2%
≤90d 80 +14.0% +3.1% 49% 46% -5.4%
all 133 +3.5% -6.3% 47% 46% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 46% -13.2%
10% -15.3% 45% -21.5%
15% -23.5% 41% -29.1%
20% -31.0% 30% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$95 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$626
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses63 / 70
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage167d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 34¢ 36¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $63 +$137 +216%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $135 +$65 +48%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $97 +$103 +105%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$149 +291%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $129 +$71 +55%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $89 −$88 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $97 −$96 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $93 +$107 +114%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $135 +$65 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $65 −$64 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $63 +$137 +216%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 10 $149 +$61 +41%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $132 +$68 +51%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 08 $115 +$85 +73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $133 −$132 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $129 −$128 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $125 −$124 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $111 −$110 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $109 −$108 -99%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 30 $181 +$3 +2%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $117 −$116 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 28 $111 −$110 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 27 $85 −$84 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $77 −$76 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $89 −$88 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $113 +$87 +76%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $113 −$112 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $109 −$108 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $65 −$64 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $67 −$66 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $67 +$133 +197%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $65 −$64 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 19 $75 +$125 +165%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 17 $102 −$2 -2%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $79 +$121 +152%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $47 −$46 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $58 −$57 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $75 +$125 +165%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $155 +$45 +29%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 08 $73 −$72 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $121 +$79 +65%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $145 +$55 +38%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 05 $85 −$84 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 04 $61 −$60 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs DRX (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha May 03 $69 −$68 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic May 01 $83 −$82 -98%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 30 $102 −$2 -2%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 30 $46 −$45 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $35 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 31¢ $63 31h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 67¢ $135 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $53 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $97 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $51 5d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 64¢ $129 6d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $89 7d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $97 8d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 46¢ $93 9d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $135 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $65 11d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY XLG Gaming 31¢ $63 12d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY XLG Gaming 71¢ $149 13d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Team Vitality 65¢ $132 14d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Leviatán Esports 57¢ $115 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $133 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $129 20d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 62¢ $125 21d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 55¢ $111 22d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $109 23d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $184 23d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $117 24d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 55¢ $111 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 42¢ $85 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 38¢ $77 27d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 44¢ $89 28d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 56¢ $113 29d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 56¢ $113 30d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 54¢ $109 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.50 · official $35.50 (match) · 215 history records