Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:32:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
87 0x8784…f1ae other 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 894d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,038 (+12%) realized +$1,021 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%69W / 65L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$1,432now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$946
7 days−$162
14 days−$23
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$952
sports 10% −$11
crypto 3% $0
politics 2% +$80
world 1% −$76
economics 0% +$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -45.8% -51.0% 25% 25% -13.8%
≤30d 54 -36.6% -42.6% 28% 28% -10.1%
≤90d 54 -36.6% -42.6% 28% 28% -10.1%
all 134 +8.6% -1.7% 51% 51% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 51% +2.7%
10% -11.2% 50% -7.1%
15% -19.7% 46% -16.1%
20% -27.6% 37% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$43 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

894d coverage
Net worth$1,432
Realized+$1,021
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses69 / 65
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions16
Markets (closed)134 / 150
History coverage894d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+3%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 88¢ $50 $112 +$62 (+124%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 37¢ 36¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? No 21¢ 20¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 16¢ $50 $29 −$21 (-43%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $314 +$186 +60%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-30? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-31? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-04? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Liverpool vs. Everton end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Wolves vs. Everton end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Aston Villa vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-04? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-21? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-08? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-09? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Manchester United vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-23? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-04? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-04? Jun 18 $65 −$40 -62%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2024-25 FA Cup? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Liverpool vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Newcastle United finish in the top 4 of EPL? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $252 −$252 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Everton vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Everton vs. Newcastle end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Wolves vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Burnley FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-30? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-19? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-10-24? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $153 +$188 +124%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $253 +$185 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$157 +307%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$134 +262%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$24 +93%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$60 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $204 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 10h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 10h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $102 28h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $203 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 21¢ $102 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 37h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $111 37h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 37h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 37h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $102 42h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $252 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $253 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 51¢ $101 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,431.87 · official $1,431.87 (match) · 305 history records