Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8783…8d5f crypto 610 markets active 3h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,261 (-13%) realized −$1,261 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate40%243W / 367L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day48.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$57
14 days−$144
30 days−$313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$727
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -17.6% -25.4% 38% 27% -16.9%
≤30d 289 -14.0% -22.2% 42% 33% -14.5%
≤90d 610 -15.0% -23.1% 40% 31% -16.3%
all 610 -15.0% -23.1% 40% 31% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 31% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -30.4% 16% -24.3%
15% -37.1% 7% -31.6%
20% -43.3% 3% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,261
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses243 / 367
Open positions0
Markets (closed)610 / 610
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day48.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 610 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$3 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$8 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$10 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $33 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$4 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$3 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $22 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $18 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $32 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $19 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$2 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records