Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:12:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8783…1a15 weather 25 markets active 5d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$44 (-45%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -71% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -75% what you keep after slip
Net edge-75%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 79% −$39
sports 9% −$4
politics 9% −$1
crypto 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-73.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -52.2% -56.8% 8% 8% -36.9%
≤30d 25 -70.6% -73.4% 4% 4% -52.8%
≤90d 25 -70.6% -73.4% 4% 4% -52.8%
all 25 -70.6% -73.4% 4% 4% -52.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -73.4% 4% -52.8%
10% -75.9% 4% -57.3%
15% -78.2% 4% -61.4%
20% -80.4% 4% -65.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -71% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -90% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage5d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$2 -32%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 10 $9 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 10 $28 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF kiseljak: Josip Simundza vs Yannick Baluska Jun 10 $6 −$3 -45%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 90°F or higher on Jun Jun 10 $4 −$4 -95%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 88°F or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 07 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$4 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June BUY Yes $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 11? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 10? SELL Yes $4 6d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 59¢ $9 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 10? BUY Yes $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 11? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 10? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 11? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 11? SELL No 99¢ $25 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 11? BUY No 95¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 11? BUY No 95¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 11? BUY No 95¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 11? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 11? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 11? SELL Yes $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 11? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 11? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 11? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 11? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 11? BUY Yes $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 11? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on BUY Yes $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on BUY Yes $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records