Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:35:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8781…9c2f crypto 245 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (526 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,583 (-4%) realized −$1,583 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%114W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day526.0pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$3,570
sports 3% +$821
other 1% −$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (526 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 245 -7.6% -16.4% 47% 46% -15.7%
≤30d 245 -7.6% -16.4% 47% 46% -15.7%
≤90d 245 -7.6% -16.4% 47% 46% -15.7%
all 245 -7.6% -16.4% 47% 46% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover526.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 46% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 46% -23.8%
15% -31.7% 45% -31.1%
20% -38.4% 42% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$143 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,583
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses114 / 131
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)245 / 245
History coverage3d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day526.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 245 Trades
no open positions (119 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $286 −$278 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $204 −$197 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $101 −$96 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $155 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $124 −$120 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $164 +$101 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $170 +$130 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $161 −$31 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $165 +$135 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $223 −$222 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $158 −$153 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $98 +$190 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $159 +$141 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $198 −$193 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $162 −$157 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $108 +$92 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $159 −$153 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$12 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $158 +$82 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$7 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $146 −$50 -34%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $29 +$71 +250%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $161 +$139 +86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $486 +$214 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $131 +$134 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $231 +$97 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $153 +$108 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $129 +$171 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $215 +$185 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $214 +$124 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $154 −$153 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $139 +$121 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $101 −$85 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $94 +$72 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $152 −$146 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$12 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $150 +$104 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $271 −$263 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $156 −$156 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $135 −$132 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $181 −$174 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $167 −$109 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $151 +$187 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $88 −$84 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $70 +$230 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $70 +$30 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $117 −$114 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $8 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $11 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $48 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $203 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $204 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $13 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $88 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $59 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $97 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $155 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $7 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $104 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $164 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $170 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1668 history records