Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:07:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8780…dc66 crypto 707 markets active 15h ago coverage 69d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d only
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$645 (-5%) realized −$640 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%323W / 400L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day50.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$309
7 days−$494
14 days−$491
30 days−$802
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,166
other 1% −$10
sports 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -33.0% -39.4% 32% 31% -39.0%
≤30d 337 -1.7% -11.1% 46% 44% -22.0%
≤90d 723 -6.3% -15.2% 45% 42% -19.0%
all 723 -6.3% -15.2% 45% 42% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 42% -19.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 39% -26.7%
15% -30.8% 34% -33.8%
20% -37.5% 26% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$640
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses323 / 400
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)723 / 707
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day50.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 723 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $46 $36 −$10 (-22%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $22 $17 −$5 (-22%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 283 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$10 -264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$11 -120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$10 +346%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -59%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $122 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$7 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 +$15 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $48 −$6 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $98 +$71 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$18 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $70 −$14 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $14 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 78¢ $85 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 36¢ $38 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $17 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $16 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.32 · official $142.32 (match) · 3500 history records