Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:16:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8780…4e7d sports 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$669 (-4%) realized −$667 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate79%70W / 19L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$707
7 days−$780
14 days−$760
30 days−$738
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$785
other 13% +$24
crypto 9% +$75
world 5% +$2
tech 3% +$10
politics 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -15.8% -23.8% 73% 20% -9.5%
≤30d 59 -12.2% -20.6% 75% 22% -9.1%
≤90d 79 -9.1% -17.7% 78% 19% -8.9%
all 89 -8.7% -17.4% 79% 18% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 18% -8.8%
10% -25.3% 3% -17.6%
15% -32.5% 1% -25.5%
20% -39.1% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$76 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$667
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses70 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions6
Markets (closed)89 / 95
History coverage112d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $72 $80 +$8 (+11%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-31%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-11%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 70¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $100 +$4 +4%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $80 +$10 +12%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $40 −$40 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $221 +$18 +8%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $109 +$1 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $138 +$27 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $290 −$13 -5%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $55 +$5 +10%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $118 +$13 +11%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $8 +$2 +25%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 18 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 18 $41 −$1 -2%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $300 +$6 +2%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $77 +$6 +8%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $803 −$782 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $329 +$30 +9%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $676 +$13 +2%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $296 −$295 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $206 +$3 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $297 +$3 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $27 −$23 -83%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $488 +$41 +8%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $18 +$1 +4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $63 +$3 +5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $755 +$20 +3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $26 +$4 +18%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $69 +$5 +7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $78 +$12 +15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $194 +$5 +3%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $45 +$5 +10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $320 +$3 +1%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $17 +$3 +16%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $300 +$5 +2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $300 +$8 +3%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $502 +$67 +13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $47 −$44 -94%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $268 +$20 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $388 +$12 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $707 +$47 +7%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $247 +$39 +16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $87 +$16 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 90¢ $72 27m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $7 53m
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $0 1h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $104 1h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $100 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $90 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $4 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $13 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $9 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $9 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $27 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $18 2h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 23h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $40 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $240 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $6 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $5 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $4 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $9 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $9 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $9 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $18 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $19 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $9 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $19 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $19 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $94 26h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $109 27h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $165 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.58 · official $97.58 (match) · 647 history records