Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x877f…b791 sports 118 markets active 1d ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$22 (+13%) realized +$12 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%30W / 80L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$18
14 days−$14
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$9
other 40% +$10
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -75.4% -77.8% 5% 5% -75.4%
≤30d 22 -30.3% -36.9% 14% 14% -12.4%
≤90d 75 -19.2% -26.9% 21% 21% -20.8%
all 110 -0.2% -9.7% 27% 27% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 27% -4.3%
10% -18.3% 26% -13.4%
15% -26.2% 26% -21.8%
20% -33.4% 25% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×2.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses30 / 80
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)110 / 118
History coverage98d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 18¢ 72¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+303%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 2¢ 12¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+398%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XLG win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $2 $0 -21%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Valorant: MIBR vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +90%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1 $0 -31%
Will Bangladesh win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 +$4 +316%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $3 +$13 +482%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 18 $1 +$2 +180%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner May 17 $2 +$2 +104%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Liquid - Map 1 Winner Apr 18 $2 −$1 -49%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Apr 18 $2 −$1 -53%
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Omega Apr 17 $3 −$2 -59%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 17 $1 $0 +18%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Apr 16 $1 +$3 +299%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Jude Bellingham: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: BBL Esports vs GIANTX - Map 2 Winner Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: BBL Esports vs GIANTX (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Apr 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Apr 15 $2 +$3 +158%
Valorant: BBL Esports vs GIANTX - Map 1 Winner Apr 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 14 $1 +$4 +388%
Bruno Fernandes: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Score Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Prem Apr 14 $2 −$2 -88%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs VARREL (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5) Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XLG win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 26h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 3d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 5d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 5d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 5d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 23¢ $1 6d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 7d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 8d
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY NRG 36¢ $1 8d
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY NRG 25¢ $1 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 9d
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FULL SENSE 13¢ $1 10d
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FULL SENSE 47¢ $1 10d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 10d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 10d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 10d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 10d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 11d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL BetBoom Team 39¢ $1 11d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.83 · official $21.83 (match) · 296 history records