Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:50:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
87 0x8777…c293 world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$357 (-77%) realized −$336 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -97% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -98% what you keep after slip
Net edge-98%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% −$358
other 22% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-97.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 29 -97.4% -97.6% 0% 0% -99.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -97.6% 0% -99.3%
10% -97.9% 0% -99.4%
15% -98.1% 0% -99.4%
20% -98.3% 0% -99.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -97% · $-wt -99% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -95% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$12 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$336
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage162d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $96 $75 −$21 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 13 $114 −$114 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 27 $15 −$15 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 25 $6 −$6 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 25 $19 −$19 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 23 $13 −$13 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 22 $6 −$6 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 22 $4 −$4 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 19 $9 −$9 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 18 $8 −$8 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 17 $9 −$9 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026? Feb 12 $8 −$8 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? Feb 11 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? Feb 04 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Feb 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)? Jan 30 $15 −$14 -93%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 28, 2026 (ET)? Jan 29 $3 −$2 -67%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)? Jan 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)? Jan 27 $5 −$4 -70%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? Jan 26 $4 −$3 -89%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? Jan 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)? Jan 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 21, 2026 (ET)? Jan 22 $2 −$1 -75%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)? Jan 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 19, 2026 (ET)? Jan 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 18, 2026 (ET)? Jan 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Jan 18 $6 −$6 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $99 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 15h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 15h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 15h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 16h
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $29 104d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $84 104d
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 118d
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 119d
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 120d
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 120d
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 120d
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 120d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 122d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 122d
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 123d
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 123d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 125d
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 126d
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 126d
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 127d
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 133d
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 134d
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 141d
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 141d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $25 144d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 144d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 146d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 146d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 28, 2026 (ET)? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 147d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.67 · official $74.67 (match) · 50 history records