Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:23:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
87 0x8773…a783 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$68 (+2%) realized +$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$431
sports 39% −$399
crypto 2% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -11.0% -19.5% 42% 42% -9.1%
≤30d 12 -11.0% -19.5% 42% 42% -9.1%
≤90d 12 -11.0% -19.5% 42% 42% -9.1%
all 12 -11.0% -19.5% 42% 42% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 42% -9.1%
10% -27.2% 33% -17.8%
15% -34.2% 33% -25.8%
20% -40.7% 33% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$260 vs −$184 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage5d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $105 +$289 +275%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $53 −$34 -65%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $396 −$396 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $738 −$734 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,043 +$613 +59%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $418 +$335 +80%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $73 +$59 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $22 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$18 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 99¢ $395 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 24¢ $105 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? SELL Yes 6¢ $19 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $53 2h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 26¢ $53 2h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 20¢ $53 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,655 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $396 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $369 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $105 5h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $753 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $264 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,043 6h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $418 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 90¢ $132 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $73 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $22 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records