Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:56:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8772…982d sports 335 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$322 (-2%) realized −$250 · open −$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%172W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$158est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$10
14 days−$112
30 days−$485
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$579
other 3% −$11
crypto 2% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -21.2% -28.7% 57% 50% -12.3%
≤30d 148 -7.4% -16.2% 55% 51% -14.3%
≤90d 333 -7.5% -16.3% 52% 49% -11.2%
all 333 -7.5% -16.3% 52% 49% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 49% -11.2%
10% -24.3% 44% -19.7%
15% -31.7% 38% -27.5%
20% -38.4% 34% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$29 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$250
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses172 / 161
Est. fees paid−$158
Open positions2
Markets (closed)333 / 335
History coverage68d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 333 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Falcons Esport 79¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C FOKUS 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $58 +$5 +9%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 23 $51 +$6 +12%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $35 +$16 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Leagu Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $40 +$6 +14%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $30 +$10 +34%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $18 +$12 +64%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -96%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $9 +$7 +76%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $18 −$18 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 +$7 +55%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 16 $8 +$4 +58%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea Jun 16 $10 +$5 +57%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $30 +$27 +89%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $15 +$8 +53%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $28 −$20 -74%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $6 +$4 +71%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $50 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $46 +$11 +24%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $42 +$4 +9%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $41 +$14 +34%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $81 +$8 +10%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $44 +$9 +21%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $38 +$6 +15%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 +$9 +46%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $27 +$3 +10%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $14 +$12 +86%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $9 +$5 +60%
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Ameri Jun 11 $7 +$2 +24%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $25 −$18 -70%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $9 +$17 +185%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $29 −$29 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $35 −$32 -91%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $46 +$15 +32%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $31 +$14 +46%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $25 +$6 +26%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $46 −$8 -18%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $18 +$15 +82%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 10 $39 −$39 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $15 +$13 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MEN BUY Falcons Esport 79¢ $62 1h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend - Map 2 Winner SELL GamerLegion 100¢ $63 1h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend - Map 2 Winner BUY GamerLegion 92¢ $58 2h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage SELL Misa Esports 100¢ $57 2h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 89¢ $51 2h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY FOKUS 59¢ $10 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $15 3h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Leagu BUY Team Secret 61¢ $30 4h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $46 4h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 87¢ $40 5h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 1 Winner SELL FOKUS 100¢ $40 6h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 1 Winner BUY FOKUS 74¢ $30 6h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A SELL Sashi Esport 100¢ $30 6h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 60¢ $18 7h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE 39¢ $10 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $7 5d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 1¢ $0 5d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 49¢ $8 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $16 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $9 5d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 73¢ $18 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $12 7d
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le SELL G2 Esports 98¢ $12 7d
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY G2 Esports 61¢ $8 7d
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Team Secret 60¢ $15 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 627 history records