Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:09:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
87 0x876f…255a other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$5 (-17%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$7
other 31% +$2
world 7% $0
sports 3% +$1
tech 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +30.0% +17.7% 71% 71% +18.2%
≤30d 9 +27.2% +15.1% 78% 67% +15.5%
≤90d 13 +9.2% -1.2% 54% 46% -0.9%
all 15 +1.2% -8.5% 47% 40% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 40% -26.8%
10% -17.2% 40% -33.8%
15% -25.2% 33% -40.2%
20% -32.6% 27% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32.03685456687687% → late 30.23260430880662% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)15 / 19
History coverage219d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 83¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +53%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +32%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10? May 06 $1 $0 -17%
Will Apple stop selling MacBook Neo? Apr 27 $1 $0 -7%
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during April press c Apr 27 $1 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 7? Nov 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 07 $6 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $1 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 29h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $1 42h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $1 18d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 39d
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 39d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 39d
Will Apple stop selling MacBook Neo? SELL No 87¢ $1 48d
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during April press c SELL Yes 76¢ $1 48d
Will Apple stop selling MacBook Neo? BUY No 93¢ $1 52d
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during April press c BUY Yes 77¢ $1 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16? BUY No 20¢ $1 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 7? BUY No 62¢ $6 219d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 53¢ $6 219d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 54¢ $6 219d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.77 · official $3.77 (match) · 33 history records