Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:09:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

87
0x876f…c21a
other · 10 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$25,990 -30%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,885 · open −$10,045
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$24,994
Realized−$2,885
Unrealized−$10,045
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Open positions44
Markets (closed)11 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$8,737
Trades / day409.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%
Chart Positions 44 History 11 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,885
7 days−$2,885
14 days−$2,885
30 days−$2,885
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ $482 $4,647 +$4,164 (+863%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $895 $4,535 +$3,641 (+407%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 17¢ $11,431 $3,875 −$7,556 (-66%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $560 $3,509 +$2,949 (+527%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $381 $2,480 +$2,099 (+551%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $482 $2,475 +$1,993 (+413%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $381 $1,177 +$796 (+209%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $381 $469 +$88 (+23%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $381 $354 −$27 (-7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $142 $208 +$67 (+47%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $504 $136 −$368 (-73%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $142 $115 −$27 (-19%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $142 $115 −$27 (-19%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $504 $106 −$398 (-79%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $142 $98 −$44 (-31%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,455 $44 −$1,411 (-97%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,455 $44 −$1,411 (-97%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,455 $44 −$1,411 (-97%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,455 $44 −$1,411 (-97%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,455 $44 −$1,411 (-97%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,455 $44 −$1,411 (-97%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,455 $44 −$1,411 (-97%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,455 $44 −$1,411 (-97%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,455 $44 −$1,411 (-97%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,455 $44 −$1,411 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,455 −$1,455 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,455 −$1,455 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$8 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$19 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$10,045
crypto 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $22 23m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 24m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 25m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $104 27m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $370 27m
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $251 27m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 29m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 29m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $100 30m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $49 32m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $16 32m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $35 32m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $50 32m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $18 32m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 33m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 34m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 34m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $15 35m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $314 35m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 39m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $22 39m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $19 39m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 39m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $39 42m
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 47m
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 47m
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 49m
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +5.4% -4.6% 55% 45% -96.7%
≤30d 11 +5.4% -4.6% 55% 45% -96.7%
≤90d 11 +5.4% -4.6% 55% 45% -96.7%
all 11 +5.4% -4.6% 55% 45% -96.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover409.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 45% -96.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 45% -97.0%
15% -22.1% 36% -97.3%
20% -29.7% 18% -97.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,994.41 · official $24,994.41 (match) · 834 history records