Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:27:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x876f…c803 politics 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%2W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$2
sports 25% −$2
other 10% −$1
economics 5% −$2
culture 5% $0
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 2 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -10.0%
all 40 -6.2% -15.1% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -23.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses2 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage228d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $89 $89 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $90 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $93 −$1 -1%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Feb 28 $92 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 18 $1 $0 -39%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 13 $93 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 07 $1 $0 -54%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 07 $89 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 04 $95 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 04 $188 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $94 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 27 $93 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Jan 25 $95 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $93 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 20 $92 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $96 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 10 $94 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 08 $96 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 06 $1 $0 -50%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 06 $94 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 05 $184 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 03 $95 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 30 $97 $0 -0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 28 $92 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 25 $97 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $197 $0 -0%
Will Raul Perestrello win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 15 $96 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 12 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $97 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 08 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 06 $96 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 03 $98 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 02 $97 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 27 $76 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 27 $4 −$2 -37%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Nov 25 $96 $0 +0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 22 $97 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 13 $1 $0 -17%
Will the Government shutdown end by December 31? Nov 12 $97 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 08 $97 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 2h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $90 12d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $90 25d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $93 45d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $93 109d
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $92 115d
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $92 125d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 125d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $94 126d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $94 128d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 128d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $93 130d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $93 133d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 133d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 136d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 136d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $89 136d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $89 137d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 137d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 139d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 139d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $91 139d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $91 142d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 142d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 143d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $94 143d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $94 145d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $93 147d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $93 148d
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $95 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.33 · official $89.33 (match) · 224 history records