Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:06:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
87 0x876e…6824 crypto 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-7%) realized −$12 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate65%50W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$26
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$27
world 19% −$5
other 8% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -11.7% -20.1% 59% 59% -13.5%
≤30d 77 -9.1% -17.7% 65% 64% -13.5%
≤90d 77 -9.1% -17.7% 65% 64% -13.5%
all 77 -9.1% -17.7% 65% 64% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 64% -13.5%
10% -25.6% 44% -21.8%
15% -32.8% 18% -29.3%
20% -39.4% 12% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses50 / 27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)77 / 80
History coverage33d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 77¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$3 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$3 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$3 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$7 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $16 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.78 · official $25.78 (match) · 169 history records