Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:42:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
87 0x876e…ad34 other 63 markets active 2d ago coverage 293d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate30%19W / 44L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$4
other 22% +$8
politics 20% +$1
crypto 7% +$2
sports 6% −$1
economics 5% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.3% -11.6% 40% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -3.7% -12.9% 20% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 10 -3.7% -12.9% 20% 0% -10.7%
all 63 +1.7% -8.0% 30% 13% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 13% -8.9%
10% -16.8% 6% -17.6%
15% -24.8% 5% -25.6%
20% -32.2% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

293d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses19 / 44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage293d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -10%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $9 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $45 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $43 −$2 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $9 −$2 -21%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $49 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 28 $1 $0 -3%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 27 $26 +$1 +3%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $1 $0 -17%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $6 +$2 +30%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $12 +$5 +37%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $7 −$3 -46%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $4 −$1 -30%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 19 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 24 $16 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 23 $1 $0 +14%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Oct 23 $1 $0 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 20 $4 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 20 $2 $0 -14%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21? Oct 19 $10 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 18 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 17 $2 $0 +15%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $2 $0 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 8? Oct 09 $11 +$2 +16%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $11 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $0 $0 -1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 28 $5 +$5 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $7 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 43h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $46 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $45 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 64¢ $42 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 64¢ $42 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $13 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $28 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $43 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $7 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $9 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $23 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $26 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $12 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 251 history records