Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:37:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
87 0x876d…fe81 sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$852 (-28%) realized −$848 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$428per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$323now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$571
30 days+$571
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$864
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +78.7% +61.7% 100% 100% +55.3%
≤90d 4 +34.1% +21.3% 75% 75% +44.4%
all 6 +6.4% -3.8% 67% 50% -38.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 50% -38.8%
10% -13.0% 50% -44.6%
15% -21.4% 50% -50.0%
20% -29.1% 33% -54.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$720 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$323
Realized−$848
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage93d
Avg bet$428
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $326 $323 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $380 +$151 +40%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $174 +$143 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $243 +$277 +114%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mar 23 $1,380 −$1,380 -100%
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 20 $424 +$9 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $332 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $380 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $174 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $243 13d
Magic vs. 76ers BUY Magic 47¢ $61 68d
Warriors vs. Mavericks BUY Mavericks 46¢ $1,380 90d
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies SELL Furman Paladins 5¢ $5 93d
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies SELL Furman Paladins 5¢ $5 93d
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies SELL Furman Paladins 5¢ $1 93d
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies SELL Furman Paladins 5¢ $5 93d
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies SELL Furman Paladins 5¢ $5 93d
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies SELL Furman Paladins 5¢ $2 93d
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies SELL Furman Paladins 5¢ $10 93d
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies SELL Furman Paladins 5¢ $1 93d
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies SELL Furman Paladins 5¢ $55 93d
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies SELL Furman Paladins 5¢ $2 93d
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies SELL Furman Paladins 5¢ $51 93d
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies BUY Furman Paladins 5¢ $0 93d
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies SELL Furman Paladins 5¢ $10 93d
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies SELL Furman Paladins 5¢ $5 93d
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies SELL Furman Paladins 5¢ $1 93d
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies BUY Furman Paladins 5¢ $5 93d
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies BUY Furman Paladins 5¢ $5 93d
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies SELL Furman Paladins 5¢ $118 93d
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies SELL Furman Paladins 5¢ $10 93d
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies SELL Furman Paladins 5¢ $103 93d
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies SELL Furman Paladins 5¢ $25 93d
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies BUY Furman Paladins 5¢ $0 93d
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies BUY Furman Paladins 5¢ $0 93d
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies SELL Furman Paladins 5¢ $1 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322.77 · official $322.77 (match) · 97 history records