Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:28:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
87 0x876b…1703 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$566 (+9%) realized −$427 · open +$993
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$663per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$6,046now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$1,136
tech 31% −$341
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-61.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -57.4% -61.4% 0% 0% -54.8%
≤30d 2 -57.4% -61.4% 0% 0% -54.8%
≤90d 2 -57.4% -61.4% 0% 0% -54.8%
all 2 -57.4% -61.4% 0% 0% -54.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.4% 0% -54.8%
10% -65.1% 0% -59.1%
15% -68.5% 0% -63.1%
20% -71.6% 0% -66.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$97 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$6,046
Realized−$427
Unrealized+$993
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)2 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$663
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 64¢ 69¢ $2,554 $2,780 +$226 (+9%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? No 15¢ 25¢ $1,089 $1,815 +$726 (+67%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? No 61¢ 76¢ $554 $694 +$139 (+25%)
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026? Yes 76¢ 88¢ $291 $336 +$45 (+16%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026? Yes 72¢ 52¢ $363 $258 −$105 (-29%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026? Yes 76¢ 58¢ $182 $140 −$42 (-23%)
Will there be 1-2 North Korea tests in June 2026? No 16¢ 18¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+17%)
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? Yes 14¢ 17¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $148 −$130 -88%
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? Jun 25 $240 −$64 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 1h
Will there be 1-2 North Korea tests in June 2026? BUY No 16¢ $12 1h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $294 1h
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $811 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY No 15¢ $1,126 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $563 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 64¢ $2,591 6h
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $18 9h
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $184 9h
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,467 9h
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $176 9h
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $240 9h
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $148 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,045.64 · official $6,046.04 (match) · 13 history records