Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:19:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8766…616a weather 335 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$179 (-4%) realized −$178 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate83%275W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$8
14 days−$60
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$102
weather 27% −$66
crypto 5% −$5
other 5% −$13
world 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -1.5% -10.9% 88% 8% -12.0%
≤30d 194 -9.8% -18.4% 81% 12% -15.1%
≤90d 333 -7.4% -16.2% 83% 15% -13.6%
all 333 -7.4% -16.2% 83% 15% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 15% -13.6%
10% -24.2% 5% -21.8%
15% -31.6% 3% -29.4%
20% -38.3% 2% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$178
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses275 / 58
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)333 / 335
History coverage89d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 333 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 20? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 19? Jun 20 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 $0 +27%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 +$6 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $9 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$8 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $17 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$4 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $28 34m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 35m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 20? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $28 4h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $28 8h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $28 24h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $28 24h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $28 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 27h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $28 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 86¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 97¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 93¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.96 · official $28.02 (match) · 686 history records