Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:34:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
87 0x8766…066c other 224 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$529 (+3%) realized +$549 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate80%178W / 45L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$78
14 days+$78
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$369
world 13% +$50
crypto 3% −$12
sports 2% −$67
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +5.7% -4.4% 89% 56% +7.0%
≤30d 66 -2.9% -12.1% 74% 47% -10.5%
≤90d 223 +1.7% -8.0% 80% 36% -7.6%
all 223 +1.7% -8.0% 80% 36% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 36% -7.6%
10% -16.8% 17% -16.4%
15% -24.9% 9% -24.5%
20% -32.2% 6% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$21 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$379
Realized+$549
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses178 / 45
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)223 / 224
History coverage84d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 91¢ 86¢ $398 $379 −$20 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $137 +$30 +22%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $84 +$53 +63%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $59 +$10 +17%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $88 +$1 +1%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $80 +$6 +8%
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $19 +$5 +27%
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $123 +$1 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $66 +$7 +11%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $73 +$12 +16%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $5 −$3 -51%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $61 +$8 +14%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $7 +$2 +31%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $119 −$105 -89%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $218 −$102 -47%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $100 +$9 +8%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $185 +$45 +24%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $201 −$16 -8%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $89 +$10 +11%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $9 −$7 -80%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $25 +$3 +13%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $25 +$21 +84%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $15 +$2 +11%
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Millonarios FC win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $74 +$18 +24%
Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $12 −$9 -75%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $50 −$45 -89%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $25 +$2 +8%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $19 +$2 +11%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $17 +$3 +16%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $39 +$2 +6%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $128 +$8 +6%
Will SC União Torreense win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $95 +$3 +3%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $190 −$6 -3%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $160 +$9 +6%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $126 +$45 +36%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 +$5 +105%
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $50 −$5 -11%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $30 +$4 +13%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $139 +$26 +19%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 23 $9 −$3 -32%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 13¢ $8 2m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $400 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 28¢ $18 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $120 21h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $17 22h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $137 23h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 61¢ $70 24h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $14 24h
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 47h
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $12 47h
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 47h
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 47h
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 84¢ $10 47h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $11 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 92¢ $10 2d
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 99¢ $69 2d
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 99¢ $10 2d
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 86¢ $54 2d
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $5 2d
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 95¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $88 3d
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31? SELL No 96¢ $86 15d
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-05-30? SELL No 90¢ $24 15d
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 89¢ $80 15d
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 70¢ $19 15d
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? SELL No 100¢ $99 16d
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 99¢ $98 16d
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? SELL No 99¢ $26 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $378.77 · official $374.39 · 716 history records