Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:22:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

87 0x8763…3d06 sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip

Net edge-43%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate38%3W / 5L

Drawdown43%max

Avg bet$19per market

Trades / day4.6pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-40.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-34.3%	-40.5%	38%	38%	-0.2%
≤30d	8	-34.3%	-40.5%	38%	38%	-0.2%
≤90d	8	-34.3%	-40.5%	38%	38%	-0.2%
all	8	-34.3%	-40.5%	38%	38%	-0.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-40.5%	38%	-0.2%
10%	-46.2%	25%	-9.8%
15%	-51.4%	25%	-18.5%
20%	-56.2%	25%	-26.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 72% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -34% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$6 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.44 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$62

Realized−$4

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses3 / 5

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)8 / 10

History coverage2d

Avg bet$19

Trades / day4.6

Drawdown43%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	58¢	60¢	$50	$52	+$2 (+4%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Yes	29¢	28¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw?	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$60	+$12	+20%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw?	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-98%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$29	+$16	+54%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$10	+$15	+152%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Jun 24	$10	−$10	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$10	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	1h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	7h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$5	7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	83¢	$60	30h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$5	45h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$5	45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY	64¢	$29	2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	39¢	$10	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.98 · official $61.98 (match) · 13 history records