Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:37:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
87 0x8762…cc57 other 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$474 (-1%) realized −$86 · open −$388
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate45%37W / 46L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$615per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$167est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$608now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,681
7 days+$500
14 days+$500
30 days+$500
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$4,708
other 43% −$4,494
crypto 1% −$491
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +7.1% -3.1% 52% 40% -8.6%
≤30d 60 +7.1% -3.1% 52% 40% -8.6%
≤90d 60 +7.1% -3.1% 52% 40% -8.6%
all 83 +2.3% -7.4% 45% 35% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 35% -9.3%
10% -16.3% 34% -18.0%
15% -24.4% 29% -25.9%
20% -31.8% 27% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$607) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +44% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$340 vs −$271 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$608
Realized−$86
Unrealized−$388
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses37 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$167
Open positions2
Markets (closed)83 / 85
History coverage137d
Avg bet$615
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Morocco to win the second half? Yes 46¢ 28¢ $500 $310 −$191 (-38%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Over 62¢ 37¢ $496 $298 −$198 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3,067 +$849 +28%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 19 $306 +$279 +91%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $202 −$200 -99%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $103 −$75 -73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,011 +$332 +33%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $441 +$483 +109%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $815 +$593 +73%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $4,517 +$325 +7%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $4,382 +$134 +3%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $4,132 +$247 +6%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $409 −$406 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$99 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $204 +$284 +139%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Team to Take First Corner Jun 18 $228 +$136 +60%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First Corner Jun 17 $202 −$202 -100%
Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots Jun 17 $203 −$203 -100%
Iraq to win the second half? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $607 −$607 -100%
Sadio Mané: 3+ shots Jun 17 $509 −$509 -100%
Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots Jun 17 $508 −$508 -100%
Michael Olise: 5+ shots Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Marcus Thuram: 3+ shots Jun 17 $502 −$502 -100%
Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ shots Jun 17 $502 −$502 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $506 +$322 +64%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $1,017 +$1,306 +128%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,437 +$917 +64%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,004 +$982 +49%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $764 +$453 +59%
Saudi Arabia to win the second half? Jun 16 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $826 −$826 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 16 $3,581 −$3,581 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $271 −$271 -100%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 16 $254 −$254 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $306 −$306 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $512 +$227 +44%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $773 +$58 +8%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2,867 +$526 +18%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $507 +$453 +89%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2,831 +$235 +8%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $392 +$286 +73%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $101 +$94 +93%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $611 +$8 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco to win the second half? BUY Yes 46¢ $509 40m
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $502 42m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 78¢ $3,917 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes 84¢ $585 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $306 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $3,009 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $202 3h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $28 3h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 82¢ $1,344 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,011 7h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $441 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,408 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 57¢ $815 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4,841 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 93¢ $4,517 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4,516 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $4,382 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4,378 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $1,669 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $2,462 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $409 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 11¢ $50 27h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $487 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 28h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Team to Take First Corner BUY Czechia 62¢ $228 31h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 31h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $828 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $608.19 · official $673.38 · 203 history records