Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:05:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
87 0x875f…aadd sports 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 397d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,440 (-15%) realized −$3,536 · open −$904
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$689per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$242est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$469now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3,099
14 days−$3,099
30 days−$3,925
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$2,776
tech 10% +$45
other 6% −$1,379
crypto 4% −$1,165
politics 1% −$189
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -11.1% -19.6% 52% 48% -22.5%
≤30d 34 -24.0% -31.2% 44% 41% -22.5%
≤90d 34 -24.0% -31.2% 44% 41% -22.5%
all 38 -26.2% -33.2% 42% 39% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.2% 39% -24.2%
10% -39.6% 26% -31.5%
15% -45.5% 16% -38.1%
20% -50.8% 13% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$1,009) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -37% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$354 vs −$465 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

397d coverage
Net worth$469
Realized−$3,536
Unrealized−$904
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$242
Open positions5
Markets (closed)38 / 43
History coverage397d
Avg bet$689
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $131 $177 +$46 (+35%)
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 58¢ 100¢ $100 $172 +$72 (+72%)
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 3¢ $1,000 $60 −$940 (-94%)
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $100 $55 −$45 (-45%)
Will Marta Kostyuk be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 18¢ 2¢ $42 $4 −$37 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,670 −$1,651 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2,473 +$538 +22%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $498 −$498 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $657 −$646 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $128 +$410 +322%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,205 +$406 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2,016 +$695 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $20 +$4 +21%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1,014 +$805 +79%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3,008 +$523 +17%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,009 +$434 +43%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $686 +$114 +17%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $2,899 +$45 +2%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $155 −$144 -93%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $75 −$74 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$14 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$22 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$31 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $105 −$100 -95%
Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? May 31 $151 −$15 -10%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $107 −$104 -97%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $206 −$200 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $1,009 −$1,000 -99%
Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Kostyuk (+1.5) May 31 $508 −$500 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 30 $106 −$100 -94%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,143 +$982 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $542 −$531 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 7.5 Total Corners May 30 $1,008 +$342 +34%
Will Dinamo 1948 win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Dinamo 1948 vs. FCSB: O/U 1.5 May 30 $1,036 +$310 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Feb 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 07 $4 +$1 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 06 $4 $0 -2%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%? May 18 $631 −$631 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,015 1h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1,670 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 18¢ $1,024 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $1,007 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $25 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $25 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $25 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $25 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $21 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $25 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $50 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $19 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $25 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $25 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $25 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 40¢ $9 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $40 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $25 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $25 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $10 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $25 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $14 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $12 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $25 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $23 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $657 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $538 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,610 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2,712 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $468.93 · official $539.31 · 114 history records