Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:25:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

87
0x8759…8b18
crypto · 1352 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$12 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$2
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses1221 / 130
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1351 / 1352
Avg bet$3
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1351 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 98¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$12
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 +1.2% -8.4% 90% 40% -8.1%
≤30d 158 +1.2% -8.4% 90% 40% -8.1%
≤90d 220 -0.2% -9.7% 90% 30% -9.6%
all 1351 -0.1% -9.6% 90% 9% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 9% -9.8%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.04 · official $2.04 (match) · 3027 history records