Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:19:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
87 0x8753…fa2e sports 359 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$367 (+8%) realized +$375 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%120W / 194L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$442now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$261
7 days+$472
14 days+$536
30 days+$331
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$299
economics 12% −$17
world 6% +$3
other 5% −$3
crypto 1% −$30
politics 1% +$104
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +354.2% +311.0% 100% 100% +311.4%
≤30d 151 +13.5% +2.7% 27% 26% +7.4%
≤90d 261 +12.0% +1.3% 28% 28% +0.5%
all 314 +16.5% +5.4% 38% 31% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.4% 31% -1.1%
10% -4.7% 29% -10.6%
15% -13.9% 27% -19.2%
20% -22.3% 26% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$8 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$442
Realized+$375
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses120 / 194
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions45
Markets (closed)314 / 359
History coverage162d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 314 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 54¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+74%)
Will Beijing Guoan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 48¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+67%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+25%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$30 +291%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$121 +1180%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$22 +216%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$61 +596%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 +$31 +301%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 +$19 +188%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 +$20 +197%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 +$23 +224%
Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iceland vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Georgia vs. Greece end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Bulgaria end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Latvia vs. Slovakia end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Lithuania vs. Liechtenstein end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Luxembourg vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Gibraltar vs. Kosovo end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Liberia vs. Sierra Leone end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Slovenia vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Israel vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Hungary vs. Andorra end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belarus vs. Armenia end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $5 −$3 -55%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 +$16 +157%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. FC Imabari end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 +$22 +211%
Will Fukushima United FC vs. FC Ryūkyū end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 +$23 +221%
Will Tochigi SC vs. Giravanz Kitakyūshū end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 +$24 +232%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Júbilo Iwata vs. FC Ōsaka end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 +$21 +206%
Will Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 +$22 +216%
Will Vegalta Sendai vs. Kataller Toyama end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 +$22 +216%
Will Armenia vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Albirex Niigata vs. Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 +$24 +239%
Will FC Gifu vs. Gainare Tottori end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Qatar vs. El Salvador end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Canada vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Australia vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 +$31 +301%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 22h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 22h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 22h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 22h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 22h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 22h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 22h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 22h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 22h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 22h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 22h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 22h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 22h
Will Beijing Guoan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 45h
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 45h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 45h
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 4d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 5d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 5d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 5d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 5d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 5d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $441.53 · official $441.54 (match) · 692 history records