Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

87
0x8751…f9c4
crypto · 32 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$142 -50%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$141 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$35
Realized−$141
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses10 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)28 / 32
History coverage101d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 4 History 28 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 60¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Levante UD win on 2026-03-16? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $32 −$32 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -67%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $1 +$1 +81%
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5 Mar 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Mar 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will Derby County FC win on 2026-03-16? Mar 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-03-16? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 12 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 12 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 12 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 12 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 12 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 12 $2 $0 +18%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $68 −$35 -51%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Mar 04 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 04 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 04 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $15 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 40% −$69
other 40% −$69
sports 15% −$1
world 5% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $15 1h
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $32 27d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 84d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 86d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 86d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? SELL Yes 98¢ $3 86d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 86d
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 7¢ $1 86d
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 7¢ $1 86d
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 86d
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 88d
Will Derby County FC win on 2026-03-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 88d
Will Derby County FC win on 2026-03-16? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 88d
Will Levante UD win on 2026-03-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $2 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $3 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 10 -45.8% -50.9% 30% 20% -86.1%
all 28 -33.0% -39.4% 36% 29% -68.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.4% 29% -68.5%
10% -45.2% 21% -71.6%
15% -50.5% 14% -74.3%
20% -55.3% 7% -76.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.38 · official $35.38 (match) · 69 history records