Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:45:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
87 0x8751…151a crypto 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 224d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,070per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 98% −$18
other 1% +$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 8 +0.9% -8.7% 75% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 0% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage224d
Avg bet$2,070
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 09 $21 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 09 $44 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in February? Mar 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? Feb 24 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Jan 31 $18,308 −$18 -0%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Jan 19 $14 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $51 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $21 100d
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $22 105d
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $44 106d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $42 117d
Will Solana dip to $40 in February? BUY No 100¢ $44 118d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? SELL No 100¢ $84 120d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $84 129d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $18,289 143d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $18,308 143d
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? BUY Yes 94¢ $7 224d
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? BUY Yes 94¢ $7 224d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.29 · official $51.29 (match) · 18 history records