Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:54:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
87 0x8750…08a0 world 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$458now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$15
other 44% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +7.8% -2.4% 67% 33% -7.3%
≤30d 3 +7.8% -2.4% 67% 33% -7.3%
≤90d 3 +7.8% -2.4% 67% 33% -7.3%
all 3 +7.8% -2.4% 67% 33% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 33% -7.3%
10% -11.8% 0% -16.1%
15% -20.3% 0% -24.2%
20% -28.1% 0% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$458
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage4d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $458 $458 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $458 $0 +0%
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? Jun 20 $65 +$4 +7%
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? Jun 20 $61 +$10 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $458 3m
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $458 1h
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $458 3h
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $35 3d
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $34 3d
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $33 3d
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 3d
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $35 4d
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $36 4d
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $32 4d
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $457.73 · official $457.73 (match) · 11 history records