Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:03:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x874e…ab32 crypto 1438 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$889 (-1%) realized −$914 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%1424W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day93.5pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$491now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days−$615
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$439
other 7% −$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 1% -8.6%
≤30d 1443 -0.2% -9.7% 99% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 1443 -0.2% -9.7% 99% 0% -10.0%
all 1443 -0.2% -9.7% 99% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 0% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$91 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$491
Realized−$914
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1424 / 19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1443 / 1438
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$86
Trades / day93.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1443 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $396 $397 +$1 (+0%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 0¢ 92¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HYPE Up or Down - May 22, 1AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 11AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - May 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +1%
HYPE Up or Down - May 23, 1PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $71 +$1 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $53 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $53 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $22 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $62 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $44 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $53 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $71 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $42 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $42 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $53 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $53 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $56 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $42 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $56 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $29 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $53 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $35 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $28 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 3m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $71 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $53 8m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 8m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 8m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 8m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 8m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $397 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $53 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $22 15m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $61 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 19m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $19 21m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 21m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $53 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $31 28m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 28m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $42 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $491.36 · official $459.47 · 3500 history records