Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:12:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x874c…3c4d world 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate34%30W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$19
other 20% −$1
politics 20% −$1
sports 12% −$12
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 28 +6.2% -3.9% 39% 11% -8.3%
≤90d 81 +2.2% -7.6% 33% 5% -9.0%
all 88 +1.2% -8.4% 34% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 6% -9.4%
10% -17.2% 3% -18.1%
15% -25.2% 3% -26.0%
20% -32.5% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses30 / 58
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)88 / 90
History coverage535d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 76¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $92 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $55 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $101 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $65 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $7 +$5 +62%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $101 −$1 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $151 +$3 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $27 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $49 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $24 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $10 +$9 +91%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $1 $0 +8%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $120 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $72 +$4 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $63 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $2 $0 +13%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $45 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $46 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $42 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $39 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 19 $23 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $43 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $43 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $102 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $79 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $4 $0 -11%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $2 $0 -5%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1 $0 -12%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $69 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $37 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $1 2h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $34 2h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $34 6h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $19 6h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $27 8h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 8h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $21 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $37 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 72¢ $12 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $2 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $38 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $27 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $27 8d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $55 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $55 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 32¢ $27 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $11 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $17 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 33¢ $20 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 33¢ $4 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 33¢ $15 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $39 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $12 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.03 · official $0.00 · 354 history records