Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:09:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
87 0x874b…968f crypto 1620 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$30,185 (+8%) realized +$30,198 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate82%1325W / 294L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day29.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$605now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 71d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,281
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.5% -8.1% 82% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 11 +1.5% -8.1% 82% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 1619 +0.7% -8.9% 82% 2% -9.0%
all 1619 +0.7% -8.9% 82% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 2% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 1% -17.7%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$19 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$605
Realized+$30,198
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses1325 / 294
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1619 / 1620
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$236
Trades / day29.8
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1619 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 96¢ 94¢ $618 $605 −$13 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $309 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 25 $613 +$20 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 25 $764 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $608 +$15 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $304 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $604 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $602 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $602 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $301 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $753 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 25 $601 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 08 $240 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 08 $240 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 08 $239 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 08 $264 −$77 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 08 $264 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 08 $263 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 08 $273 −$31 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 08 $271 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 08 $267 +$14 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 08 $266 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 08 $265 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 08 $264 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 08 $265 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 08 $264 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 08 $257 +$24 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 08 $256 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 08 $276 −$59 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 08 $270 +$16 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 08 $261 +$30 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 08 $256 +$13 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 08 $255 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 08 $254 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 08 $253 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 08 $279 −$79 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 07 $277 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 07 $258 +$71 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 07 $254 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 07 $252 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 07 $270 −$54 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 07 $268 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 07 $267 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 07 $266 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 07 $266 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 07 $269 −$12 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 07 $268 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 07 $267 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 07 $278 −$33 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 07 $535 +$35 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 07 $266 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $619 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $309 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $613 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $764 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $608 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $304 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $604 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $602 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $602 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $301 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $301 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $752 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $753 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $601 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $240 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $240 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $239 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $3 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $179 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $3 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $264 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $264 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $263 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $242 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $273 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $271 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $267 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $266 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $265 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $605.17 · official $425.86 · 3500 history records