Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:57:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x874a…1638 other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$25 (-1%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate24%12W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 77% −$13
other 14% −$9
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 2% −$5
world 2% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 +3.5% -6.3% 25% 8% -5.9%
≤90d 39 -1.0% -10.5% 23% 10% -10.6%
all 51 -0.9% -10.3% 24% 8% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 8% -10.0%
10% -18.9% 8% -18.6%
15% -26.7% 8% -26.5%
20% -33.9% 6% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses12 / 39
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage603d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $13 +$5 +44%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $43 $0 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $81 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $46 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $94 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $44 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $46 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $44 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $48 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $7 +$4 +60%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $5 +$8 +165%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 06 $19 $0 +1%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 29 $10 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 05 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 13 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $19 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 04 $6 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $13 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $143 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $914 −$4 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 28 $842 −$6 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 3d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 5d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 10d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 10d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 11d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 11d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 21d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 27d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 27d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $13 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 28d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $43 30d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $43 30d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 51¢ $5 32d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 35d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 35d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.75 · official $29.75 (match) · 255 history records