Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8746…f522 weather 271 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,155 (-5%) realized −$1,044 · open −$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate57%152W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$104
7 days−$23
14 days+$105
30 days−$263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$1,384
crypto 0% −$21
sports 0% +$2
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -16.3% -24.3% 62% 45% -10.1%
≤30d 87 -23.3% -30.6% 52% 31% -12.7%
≤90d 229 -15.7% -23.7% 59% 35% -15.1%
all 269 -14.0% -22.2% 57% 35% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 35% -15.0%
10% -29.6% 21% -23.1%
15% -36.4% 12% -30.5%
20% -42.7% 7% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$34 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$1,044
Unrealized−$111
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses152 / 117
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)269 / 271
History coverage103d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 269 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? No 87¢ 86¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Yes 96¢ 0¢ $111 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? Jun 17 $261 −$15 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $26 +$5 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $376 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $136 −$111 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $44 −$44 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $391 +$54 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $201 +$11 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $345 +$46 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $39 +$10 +26%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $109 +$18 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $161 −$130 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $228 +$17 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $370 +$57 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $52 −$31 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $160 +$57 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $67 −$28 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$14 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $86 +$37 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $131 +$16 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $72 −$27 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$10 -47%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$3 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $38 +$7 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $231 +$44 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $61 −$51 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $172 −$28 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 10? Jun 09 $20 −$19 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $28 −$27 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 08 $28 +$8 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $151 +$33 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $51 +$44 +85%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $210 +$38 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $100 −$2 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 7? Jun 07 $197 +$15 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $69 +$38 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $152 +$39 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $208 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 5? Jun 04 $101 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $96 +$13 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 4? Jun 04 $93 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $183 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27? May 27 $34 −$33 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 27? May 27 $33 −$19 -59%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 27? May 27 $61 +$13 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $95 50m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $151 59m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? SELL No 75¢ $246 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 77¢ $261 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 4¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $396 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 98¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $382 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 70¢ $95 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $16 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 78¢ $17 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 78¢ $17 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 20¢ $17 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $360 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 8h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 81¢ $44 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $115 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $284 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $310 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $109 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $75 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $3 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.50 · official $149.50 (match) · 958 history records