Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:48:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
87 0x8745…4658 sports 760 markets active 0h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,144 (-1%) realized −$1,183 · open +$39
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate71%533W / 223L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$257est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$449now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$292
14 days−$618
30 days−$657
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$167
sports 37% −$1,548
crypto 0% +$64
politics 0% −$111
world 0% −$13
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -17.9% -25.7% 60% 40% -25.9%
≤30d 51 -15.1% -23.2% 67% 41% -21.9%
≤90d 527 -9.9% -18.5% 72% 45% -10.5%
all 756 -6.8% -15.7% 71% 47% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 47% -10.3%
10% -23.7% 29% -18.9%
15% -31.1% 19% -26.8%
20% -37.8% 13% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$88 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$449
Realized−$1,183
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses533 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$257
Open positions4
Markets (closed)756 / 760
History coverage117d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 756 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? No 93¢ 100¢ $200 $215 +$15 (+7%)
Colombia leading at halftime? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 82¢ 92¢ $80 $90 +$10 (+12%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Team to Take First Corner Colombia 80¢ 100¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$8 +20%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $201 −$199 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $173 +$7 +4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$10 +99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $301 +$36 +12%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $45 +$3 +6%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $311 +$18 +6%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $102 +$125 +122%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $11 +$4 +42%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $201 −$200 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 11 $190 +$22 +12%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $98 −$97 -99%
Will SC Recife vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $59 +$13 +22%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $201 +$23 +11%
Tōkyō Verdy vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $110 +$62 +56%
Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $234 +$31 +13%
Cerezo Ōsaka leading at halftime? Jun 06 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $220 +$13 +6%
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $18 −$18 -99%
Kashima Antlers vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 06 $24 +$2 +10%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? Jun 05 $10 $0 +5%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $25 +$5 +21%
Will FC Universitario vs. Club Aurora end in a draw? Jun 02 $12 +$6 +46%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $27 +$5 +17%
FC Universitario vs. Club Aurora: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $99 +$10 +10%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $170 +$12 +7%
Will AA Ponte Preta vs. Botafogo FC end in a draw? Jun 02 $5 +$7 +128%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $101 +$26 +26%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $25 +$6 +26%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
América de Cali vs. CSyD Macará: O/U 0.5 May 29 $99 −$99 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $62 −$62 -99%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-27? May 29 $156 +$5 +4%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $153 +$3 +2%
Sporting CP vs. SC União Torreense: O/U 1.5 May 27 $140 +$13 +10%
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 1.5 May 27 $78 −$78 -99%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 24 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $50 +$3 +6%
Atlético Nacional vs. CD Tolima: O/U 2.5 May 24 $100 +$90 +90%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5 May 23 $84 +$16 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 10m
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 1h
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? BUY No 93¢ $200 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Team to Take First Corner BUY Colombia 80¢ $30 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $40 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $15 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $101 30h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $181 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $20 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 96¢ $173 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $20 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 94¢ $45 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 89¢ $301 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $10 5d
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 94¢ $200 5d
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 93¢ $100 5d
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 20¢ $8 5d
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 24¢ $10 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 BUY Over 85¢ $100 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $11 7d
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 67¢ $98 7d
Will SC Recife vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $101 7d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 9d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 89¢ $119 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $448.67 · official $448.67 (match) · 1708 history records