Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:17:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8744…3d64 crypto 445 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1743 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,040 (+47%) realized +$4,165 · open −$125
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate58%251W / 184L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1742.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$284
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1743 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 435 -1.8% -11.2% 58% 53% -11.2%
≤30d 435 -1.8% -11.2% 58% 53% -11.2%
≤90d 435 -1.8% -11.2% 58% 53% -11.2%
all 435 -1.8% -11.2% 58% 53% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1742.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 53% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 46% -19.7%
15% -27.4% 34% -27.5%
20% -34.5% 20% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$4,165
Unrealized−$125
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses251 / 184
Open positions10
Markets (closed)435 / 445
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1742.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 435 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 76¢ 96¢ $19 $24 +$5 (+25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$8 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$11 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$11 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$9 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 26m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.46 · official $53.00 · 3500 history records