Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:35:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
87 0x8743…e31d other 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate26%15W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 80% −$14
politics 9% −$7
other 7% +$4
sports 2% +$3
crypto 1% +$4
world 1% +$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 +1.9% -7.8% 15% 8% -8.8%
≤90d 45 -2.0% -11.4% 29% 16% -8.9%
all 58 -2.0% -11.4% 26% 12% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 12% -9.6%
10% -19.9% 12% -18.2%
15% -27.6% 10% -26.1%
20% -34.7% 10% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses15 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage602d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $14 +$3 +26%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $97 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $19 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 18 $91 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 12 $90 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers May 12 $6 +$7 +114%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $77 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $86 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $78 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? May 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3? May 04 $37 $0 +0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $83 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $83 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $81 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $84 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $84 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 17 $86 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $7 +$5 +62%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $10 +$5 +52%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Sharks Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
76ers vs. Wizards Apr 02 $15 +$1 +7%
Celtics vs. Hornets Apr 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Apr 01 $22 −$22 -100%
Blues vs. Sharks Apr 01 $22 +$22 +96%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 01 $47 $0 +1%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 29 $19 +$27 +144%
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 25 $23 $0 +2%
Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 154.5 Mar 25 $17 +$18 +107%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 06 $87 +$2 +2%
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? Mar 05 $4 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 03 $13,522 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $11 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $55 46h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 8d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 8d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 79¢ $14 9d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $16 11d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 11d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 12d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 12d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $19 13d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 13d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $11 15d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $11 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 16d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 17d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 17d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $15 24d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 24d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $91 29d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $91 29d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $84 30d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $85 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.66 · official $66.66 (match) · 239 history records