trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -3.8% | -13.0% | 0% | 0% | -12.9% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -0.9% | -10.3% | 43% | 0% | -10.2% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -0.9% | -10.3% | 43% | 0% | -10.2% |
| all | 25 | -4.2% | -13.3% | 44% | 4% | -12.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.3% | 4% | -12.3% |
| 10% | -21.6% | 0% | -20.7% |
| 15% | -29.2% | 0% | -28.3% |
| 20% | -36.1% | 0% | -35.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 64¢ | 66¢ | $35 | $35 | +$1 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 19 | $36 | −$2 | -6% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 18 | $40 | −$1 | -1% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 03 | $71 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 03 | $39 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 30 | $37 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 28 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 24 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Apr 09 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? | Apr 06 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 05 | $6 | −$1 | -11% |
| Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? | Apr 04 | $2 | $0 | +7% |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 03 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? | Mar 29 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? | Mar 28 | $16 | $0 | -1% |
| Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? | Mar 25 | $13 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? | Mar 18 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Mar 17 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? | Mar 17 | $2 | $0 | -10% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 17 | $29 | $0 | -0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? | Mar 16 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week? | Mar 15 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? | Mar 15 | $14 | +$2 | +12% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? | Mar 13 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 49°F or higher on March 8? | Mar 11 | $14 | $0 | +2% |