Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:05:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

87 0x873e…f580 sports 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 185d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,084 (+50%) realized +$1,077 · open +$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip

Net edge+39%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate56%10W / 8L

Drawdown18%max

Avg bet$115per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$19est.

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$246now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$154

7 days+$491

14 days+$440

30 days+$440

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+39.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+76.6%	+59.8%	57%	57%	+79.1%
≤30d	8	+54.5%	+39.8%	50%	50%	+62.7%
≤90d	9	+37.4%	+24.3%	44%	44%	+38.2%
all	18	+53.7%	+39.1%	56%	50%	+47.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+39.1%	50%	+47.8%
10%	+25.8%	44%	+33.7%
15%	+13.6%	44%	+20.8%
20%	+2.5%	44%	+8.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 51% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

10% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +54% · $-wt +63% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +70% → late +37% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$181 vs −$73 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.1 per $1 lost it wins $3.1

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage

Net worth$246

Realized+$1,077

Unrealized+$7

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses10 / 8

Est. fees paid−$19

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage185d

Avg bet$115

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown18%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Over	49¢	50¢	$239	$246	+$7 (+3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$82	−$59	-72%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 21	$62	+$213	+346%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$183	+$311	+170%
O/U 2.5 Rounds	Jun 15	$34	+$75	+222%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	Jun 15	$53	+$37	+70%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$83	−$82	-99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	Jun 14	$52	−$51	-98%
Thunder vs. Lakers	May 12	$100	−$98	-98%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)	Mar 08	$339	+$603	+178%
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Mar 08	$200	−$200	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Feb 21	$91	+$207	+228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Feb 21	$58	+$33	+58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Feb 21	$157	+$4	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Feb 21	$133	−$77	-58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Feb 21	$100	+$18	+18%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?	Dec 19	$97	+$307	+316%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20?	Dec 19	$108	−$13	-12%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$243	25m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	3¢	$23	1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	7¢	$21	1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	9¢	$62	1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	42¢	$275	1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$62	1h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	BUY No	27¢	$5	6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	SELL Justin Gaethje	99¢	$494	6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	70¢	$109	6d
O/U 2.5 Rounds	SELL Over	99¢	$109	6d
O/U 2.5 Rounds	BUY Over	30¢	$34	6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	21¢	$66	6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	20¢	$7	6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	51¢	$83	6d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	SELL Diego Lopes	100¢	$83	6d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	BUY Diego Lopes	58¢	$53	7d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	BUY Aiemann Zahabi	22¢	$52	7d
Thunder vs. Lakers	BUY Lakers	13¢	$100	40d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)	SELL Charles Oliveira	100¢	$0	105d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)	SELL Charles Oliveira	100¢	$9	105d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)	SELL Charles Oliveira	100¢	$66	105d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)	SELL Charles Oliveira	100¢	$151	105d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)	SELL Charles Oliveira	100¢	$255	105d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)	SELL Charles Oliveira	100¢	$462	105d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)	BUY Charles Oliveira	36¢	$134	105d
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card)	SELL Rob Font	0¢	$1	105d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)	BUY Charles Oliveira	37¢	$100	106d
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card)	BUY Rob Font	30¢	$100	106d
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card)	BUY Rob Font	29¢	$100	106d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)	BUY Charles Oliveira	35¢	$105	106d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.38 · official $246.38 (match) · 60 history records