Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:52:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
87 0x873e…4eac sports 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 351d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$18 (+2%) realized +$19 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate75%9W / 3L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$80
14 days+$80
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$82
other 2% −$7
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +18.8% +7.5% 100% 50% +0.5%
≤30d 6 +18.8% +7.5% 100% 50% +0.5%
≤90d 7 +1.8% -7.9% 86% 43% +0.4%
all 12 -10.1% -18.6% 75% 42% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 42% -0.2%
10% -26.4% 33% -9.7%
15% -33.5% 8% -18.5%
20% -40.0% 0% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×3.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.59 per $1 lost it wins $10.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

351d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses9 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage351d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 40¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Yes 65¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $10 +$1 +9%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 +$35 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $201 +$23 +11%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $100 +$10 +10%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $299 +$9 +3%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $6 +$3 +46%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? Sep 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 Jul 19 $10 +$3 +30%
Pump.fun announces public raise sold out in the first hour? Jul 12 $7 +$2 +32%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say “Farmer” during his Iowa State Fairgrounds speech? Jul 05 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 40¢ $1 6m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 90¢ $11 6m
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $136 53m
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 73¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $223 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 88¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 91¢ $100 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $110 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 91¢ $100 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $10 3h
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Australia 99¢ $308 3h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 96¢ $299 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $6 4h
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 55d
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 55d
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 273d
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 SELL Usyk 100¢ $13 335d
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 BUY Usyk 77¢ $10 335d
Pump.fun announces public raise sold out in the first hour? BUY Yes 76¢ $7 342d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY Yes $1 351d
Will Trump say “Farmer” during his Iowa State Fairgrounds speech? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 351d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY Yes $1 351d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.06 · official $1.06 (match) · 29 history records