Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:57:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x873c…ac48 sports 407 markets active 1h ago coverage 747d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Covers last 747d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,533 (-4%) realized −$12,533 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%134W / 273L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$707per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,627
7 days+$1,627
14 days+$1,627
30 days+$1,627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$851
politics 23% −$9,526
crypto 8% +$2,655
other 2% −$549
economics 0% +$5
tech 0% −$137
world 0% −$75
finance 0% −$2
culture 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +28.2% +16.0% 64% 45% +56.3%
≤30d 11 +28.2% +16.0% 64% 45% +56.3%
≤90d 25 -41.1% -46.7% 28% 20% -15.1%
all 407 -11.4% -19.8% 33% 29% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 29% -11.7%
10% -27.5% 26% -20.1%
15% -34.5% 24% -27.8%
20% -40.9% 22% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$698) neutral
Persistence
early -29% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$974 vs −$508 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

747d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12,533
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses134 / 273
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)407 / 407
History coverage747d ⚠
Avg bet$707
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 407 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $565 +$537 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $87 −$28 -32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $6 $0 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 17 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $418 +$881 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $215 −$138 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $131 +$24 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $259 +$327 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $109 +$58 +53%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 17 $369 +$14 +4%
Spurs vs. Warriors May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 01 $32 −$32 -100%
Hawks vs. Rockets May 01 $58 −$58 -100%
Nets vs. Bucks May 01 $131 −$75 -58%
Clippers vs. Grizzlies May 01 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 01 $196 −$196 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 01 $201 −$201 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $230 and $240 on October 9? May 01 $141 −$141 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 01 $123 −$123 -100%
Nuggets vs. Raptors May 01 $611 −$492 -81%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Apr 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 13 $274 −$274 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 13 $195 −$195 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Mar 08 $41 +$39 +96%
Jazz vs. Bucks Mar 08 $78 −$35 -45%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 07 $70 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Mar 07 $40 +$39 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 07 $43 −$22 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 21 $98 +$100 +102%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Feb 21 $245 −$147 -60%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Feb 20 $158 +$88 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Dec 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers Nov 30 $434 −$25 -6%
Raptors vs. Knicks Nov 30 $30 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Nov 30 $388 −$363 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 30? Nov 30 $74 −$63 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Nov 30 $663 −$578 -87%
Pistons vs. Heat Nov 30 $168 +$242 +143%
Mavericks vs. Clippers Nov 30 $280 +$720 +257%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 29, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Nov 30 $100 +$96 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Nov 30 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Nov 30 $25 +$25 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 29? Nov 29 $1,277 +$60 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on September 18? Oct 19 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $230 on October 10? Oct 19 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Trump say "King" during events with UK Prime Minister on Septembe Oct 19 $247 −$247 -100%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" during events with UK Prime Minister on Sep Oct 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Trump say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 12+ times during events Oct 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 23¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL No 28¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3410 history records