Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:04:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

87 0x8731…2c12 sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$1,339 (-51%) realized −$1,342 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip

Net edge-26%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%2W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$374per market

Trades / day1.6pace

Fees−$46est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-25.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-17.7%	-25.6%	33%	33%	-60.5%
≤30d	6	-17.7%	-25.6%	33%	33%	-60.5%
≤90d	6	-17.7%	-25.6%	33%	33%	-60.5%
all	6	-17.7%	-25.6%	33%	33%	-60.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.6%	33%	-60.5%
10%	-32.7%	33%	-64.3%
15%	-39.2%	33%	-67.7%
20%	-45.2%	33%	-70.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 80% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -56% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$320 vs −$497 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.32 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$191

Realized−$1,342

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses2 / 4

Est. fees paid−$46

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage5d

Avg bet$374

Trades / day1.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners	Under	35¢	36¢	$188	$191	+$3 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER	Jun 23	$45	−$44	-98%
Map Handicap: UCAM (-1.5) vs Pixel Lumina (+1.5)	Jun 23	$108	+$130	+121%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5)	Jun 21	$296	+$510	+172%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$496	−$487	-98%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala	Jun 20	$889	−$874	-98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$591	−$581	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	35¢	$192	1h
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER	BUY Atrix Esports	40¢	$45	29h
Map Handicap: UCAM (-1.5) vs Pixel Lumina (+1.5)	BUY Pixel Lumina	44¢	$53	46h
Map Handicap: UCAM (-1.5) vs Pixel Lumina (+1.5)	BUY Pixel Lumina	45¢	$55	46h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5)	BUY Team Falcons	36¢	$296	3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	39¢	$496	4d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala	BUY Alexandra Eala	41¢	$889	4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	43¢	$591	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.69 · official $190.69 (match) · 10 history records