Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:33:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
87 0x8730…ca60 crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 580d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1,295 (-17%) realized −$1,295 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate65%37W / 20L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$2
crypto 33% −$1,294
other 22% $0
world 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 1 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 3 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 57 -2.6% -11.9% 65% 2% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 2% -24.8%
10% -20.3% 0% -32.0%
15% -28.0% 0% -38.5%
20% -35.1% 0% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$69 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$1,295
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses37 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage580d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 24 $31 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 22 $31 $0 +1%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? Mar 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 mi Feb 23 $31 +$1 +4%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will Meta reach $960 in November? Dec 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Airbnb reach $168 in November? Dec 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tesla reach $615 in November? Dec 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $110 on November 13? Nov 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 8? Nov 10 $1,030 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 11AM ET Nov 07 $1,276 −$1,276 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Nov 07 $5 $0 +1%
Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch? Nov 07 $5 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? Nov 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? Oct 09 $12 $0 +3%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 09 $620 −$1 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 09 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Sep 25 $12 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $105K on July 14? Aug 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1900 on May 16? May 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on May 9? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? May 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $300 in March? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 7? Mar 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $3500 by February 28 2025? Mar 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 22 $1,066 $0 +0%
Will Simon Harris be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Feb 01 $2 $0 +3%
Will Micheal Martin be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Feb 01 $2 $0 +6%
Will Ethereum hit $4,750 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by January 31? Feb 01 $5 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $5 +$1 +19%
Trump $83.3m verdict reduced on appeal? Jan 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? Jan 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024? Jan 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will Zoran Milanović be the next President of Croatia? Jan 16 $2 $0 +6%
Will RFK Jr. get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
Fed rate hike in 2024? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah be the next President of Namibia? Dec 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will PNL win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? Dec 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Independence Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parlia Dec 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 28 $8 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win Vermont by the largest margin? Nov 28 $2 $0 -0%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Nov 28 $2 $0 -17%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 21 $374 $0 -0%
Will the Titans win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 21 $179 $0 -0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win La Liga? Nov 21 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 21 $370 $0 -0%
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 21 $182 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 32d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 62d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 100¢ $31 105d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? BUY No 100¢ $12 120d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? BUY No 100¢ $3 120d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2 120d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2 120d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? BUY No 100¢ $3 120d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2 120d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? BUY No 100¢ $1 120d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? BUY No 100¢ $3 120d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2 120d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2 120d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 mi BUY No 96¢ $31 162d
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes 99¢ $31 182d
Will Airbnb reach $168 in November? BUY No 100¢ $10 213d
Will Tesla reach $615 in November? BUY No 100¢ $10 213d
Will Meta reach $960 in November? BUY No 100¢ $10 213d
Will the price of Solana be less than $110 on November 13? BUY No 100¢ $31 225d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 11AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $608 228d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 11AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $668 228d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 8? BUY No 100¢ $1,030 228d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? BUY No 99¢ $10 247d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? BUY No 99¢ $5 247d
Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 247d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $619 257d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $620 257d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 99¢ $604 257d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 99¢ $605 257d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.98 · official $30.98 (match) · 137 history records