Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:53:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x872c…6db0 other 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,100 (+0%) realized +$1,100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate17%28W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$1,525per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$982now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$908
politics 37% −$113
sports 9% +$328
economics 3% −$11
culture 1% −$4
world 1% −$3
crypto 1% −$26
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 42 -4.9% -13.9% 12% 5% -9.8%
≤90d 115 -13.5% -21.8% 7% 3% -9.3%
all 162 -3.5% -12.7% 17% 10% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 10% -9.1%
10% -21.1% 10% -17.8%
15% -28.7% 10% -25.8%
20% -35.7% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,183) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$11 · ×8.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$982
Realized+$1,100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses28 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)162 / 163
History coverage154d
Avg bet$1,525
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $982 $982 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2,113 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3,311 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,398 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 13 $2,730 −$3 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $885 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 13 $242 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $6,415 −$7 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $2,640 −$4 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,638 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $6,917 −$7 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,970 −$5 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 08 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,056 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $779 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $43 −$43 -100%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $2,451 −$3 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 04 $51 +$77 +152%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $2,830 −$4 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $5,455 −$7 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,403 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,105 −$5 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $3,245 −$5 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $399 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $907 +$2 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $686 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $961 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,952 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $4,472 −$6 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $87 −$87 -100%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $936 −$1 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $4,420 −$6 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $53 +$25 +48%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $1,267 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $4,465 −$5 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $1,619 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $1,316 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $1,663 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $6,629 −$7 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $1,601 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 16 $1,608 −$3 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $4,799 −$6 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $3,510 −$4 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $1,362 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $983 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $765 40h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $766 43h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,015 43h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $699 46h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $317 46h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $849 46h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $850 2d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,093 3d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,095 3d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $884 3d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $885 3d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $809 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $810 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $703 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $704 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $862 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $863 7d
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $242 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $787 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $788 7d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $811 7d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $812 8d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $907 8d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $908 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,054 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,056 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $694 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $695 9d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $700 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $981.89 · official $981.89 (match) · 551 history records